BIG WINNER TURKIYE
BY ERBIL GUNASTI (2)
Turkey may yet prove to be the big winner of the Ukraine war. Erdogan has already helped avert a global famine. He may yet exploit Europe’s looming energy winter crisis to redraw the world order in his interests. ERBIL GUNASTI WRITES, says Daily Mail on the 22 September 2022 dated edition.
Turkey: Big Winner of the Ukraine war
It is often said that there are no winners in war. But the old cliché fails to take into account non-combatants who find their international position has strengthened through the conflict.
China, for example, might well secure advantageous oil and gas contracts from Moscow in return for the invasion of Ukraine.
But the most significant winner could yet to prove to be Turkey. The country has already proved its status as a regional powerbroker by securing a deal with the Kremlin to allow the export of millions of tons of Ukrainian grain. Thus, it averted a major global food crisis.
But there is more to it than that.
Turkey, of course, sits at a crucial geopolitical crossroads. It has one foot in Europe and the other in Asia. It controls the Bosphorus, gateway to the Black Sea, it sits astride the oil and gas pipelines from central Asia that may yet prove to be Europe’s saviour in the coming winter without Russian gas.
It is a major food exporter, a member of NATO and while it sits outside the European Union, Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, which has been credited with accelerating the development of its industrial sector as European manufacturers seek to lower production costs without attracting tariffs and international red tape.
There is also a human bargaining chip. Turkey is the gateway to Europe for tens of millions of migrants who want to abandon their homes in Africa and the Indian subcontinent and try their luck in Europe.
Turkey may yet prove to be the big winner of the Ukraine war.
The role of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is important to note.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has shown he is a tough deal-maker who will be keen to preserve his country’s traditional role of promoting Turkey’s interests, while keeping both Moscow and the Western World if not happy, then grudgingly content.
- For the full version of the published article click here!
- Erbil Gunasti authored GameChanger, published in 2020.
- Weekly ‘Erbil Writes’ posts on Turkey and the US Foreign Policy Objectives are available here.